科技保险的困境—一个制度供求非均衡分析

现阶段，我国步入了创新驱动引领升级的关键时期，科技创新受到了整个社会的空前重视。科技保险作为分散和转移科技风险的重要手段，可以为科技创新提供有力的风险保障。目前，我国科技保险工作已经进入全面推广阶段，虽然取得了一定的成效，但整体运行并不理想，科技企业参保率低，科技保险缺失严重。究其原因，主要在于制度供给不能适应科技企业对科技保险的需求，科技保险制度供求非均衡，在现行的科技保险制度下积聚着大量的潜在利润，而这些潜在利润既是科技保险制度非均衡的原因，又是科技保险制度创新的动力。     

An additive–multiplicative mean model for panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes

This paper discusses regression analysis of panel count data with dependent observation and dropout processes. For the problem, a general mean model is presented that can allow both additive and multiplicative effects of covariates on the underlying point process. In addition, the proportional rates model and the accelerated failure time model are employed to describe possible covariate effects on the observation process and the dropout or follow‐up process, respectively. For estimation of regression parameters, some estimating equation‐based procedures are developed and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, a resampling approach is proposed for estimating a covariance matrix of the proposed estimator and a model checking procedure is also provided. Results from an extensive simulation study indicate that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations, and it is applied to a motivating set of real data.     

On the Changes of Modern Chinese Vocabulary: Taking"Nayun(拿云)"as an Example

"拿云"一词是近代汉语新产生的词汇,具有典型的动词性特点,其内部构造具有明显的动宾关系,可以充当定语、状语、宾语、谓语等成分.该词的语用风格具有典雅性,结构具有凝固性;其夸张义、比喻义也比较明显.该词的产生具有深厚的认知基础,具体表现为:基于隐喻的词义引申、语言的陌生化原则和基于构式"拿+X"的扩充."拿云"的词汇化始于语言的重新分析机制,历程是错综复杂的."拿云"的词汇化历程体现了部分近代汉语词汇的演变轨迹.     

领导力、均势与日本联盟战略的新选择

随着21世纪以来"本战略文化加速朝现实主义方向转型,其联盟战略的选择出现了新的变化,即着力改变自战败以来一直坚持的依附美国的单一化联盟结构,转向打造以地区大国和结点国家为合作伙伴的多元化联盟。这并不能在"美同盟的框架内做出充分的解释,体现出的不是"本传统“与强者为伍”的联盟战略理念,而是贯彻着领导力和均势的内在逻辑。以领导力和均势为核心变量的分析框架既解释了 "本双边安全合作“联盟化”构建的一般取向,又解释了彼此之间的差异性。"本基本构建起了以"美同盟为第一层,以"印、"澳战略联盟为第二层,以日越、"菲志愿者联盟为第三层,以与地区其他国家的安全合作为第四层的多层安全保障体系。     

Experimental Coastal Land Reclamation: Qianhai as a Case Interpreted

ABSTRACT

Informed by a Coasian transaction cost paradigm enriched by the concept of Schumpeterian innovations, this paper discusses the advantages of using experimental coastal reclamation of the sea to build new cities with a policy for fostering innovations. A new development area at the margin of Shenzhen in China, Qianhai, is used to demonstrate how urban expansion by urban sprawling in a megacity can be avoided by reclamation of marginal land as analytically less costly than along intra-marginal land and more suitable for experimentation for the type of megacity concept that Qianhai aims to achieve.     

陕西省交通基础设施对经济增长的空间溢出效应

为了从外部性角度说明目前陕西省交通基础设施的建设和投资在地域上存在的问题，为陕西省交通基础设施建设方向提供理论帮助，基于陕西省2009~2017年间各市相关数据，在交通基础设施对经济增长效应研究的直接效应和溢出效应基础上，加入空间要素，构建生产函数和空间权重矩阵，通过自相关检验（莫兰指数）、LM检验和 Hausman检验，选取合适的空间面板计量模型对陕西省交通基础设施的经济溢出情况进行研究。研究认为，2009~2017年间陕西省交通基础设施对经济增长的溢出效应（显著）整体为负，但依然存在正溢出的局部地区，即以西安为首的经济聚集区（西安、宝鸡、咸阳）和榆林、延安联合的陕北经济聚集区，资源过于集中和两个高地之间缺乏互联互通是整体呈现负溢出的重要原因。在地域分配的量和质上应充分考虑交通基础设施的溢出效应，避免资源过度集中在西安，在两个经济高地之间打通一条经济要道，并重点扶持相对落后又有发展前景的城市可促使陕西经济发展由总体集聚向总体扩散转变。     

从造字到造形：汉字形体结构与书法艺术

汉字作为一种书写形体，笔画组合的丰富多样和间架结构的灵活多变，而使其“字形”成为复杂的美学构成，“书写”成为“书法”，并完成从造字到造形的转变。书法是汉字书写艺术，书法艺术深藏于汉字独特的形体结构之中。三位一体的整体架构、二维方块结体、平衡对称等汉字在形体构造上的诗性特征，既是人们对文字形体的一种审美预期，也是书法学家在书法创作时努力追求的美感。     

ON EQUILIBRIUM PLAYER ORDERING IN DYNAMIC TEAM CONTESTS

We study equilibrium player ordering in a dynamic all-pay contest between two teams. The contest lasts two periods, and each team consists of two players who perform in different periods on behalf of their teams. The team with the higher aggregate output wins the prize, which is a public good to its players. Each team has one stronger player and one weaker player, and the two teams can differ in their values of the prize. The teams maximize their winning odds by strategically assigning their players to different periods. We find that when the intrateam heterogeneity in player ability is not excessive, the teams would allocate their stronger players to the late positions as the “anchormen.” When both the intrateam ability gap and interteam heterogeneity in teams' values become excessively large, the team with high value always places its stronger player in the early position, who will place a large bid to preempt late competition. (JEL C7, D7, D8)     

身份与利益——东南亚恐怖主义根源探析

恐怖主义是人类社会的灾难,长期对东南亚地区的和平与安全构成重大威胁。防控东南亚恐怖主义的蔓延并进行根治,是东南亚各国政府、域外利益攸关方(stakeholders)、国际组织共同关心的议题。身份-利益这一特质为区分东南亚恐怖主义类型提供了研究方法,也为探寻其不同的根源提供了研究途径。东南亚恐怖主义滋生于身份认同的异质化及自身对特殊政治利益的追求,以身份认同为标准和边界,东南亚恐怖主义可以分为左右翼革命型、民族主义-分裂主义型和宗教-政治型三种类型。东南亚恐怖主义身份认同需要靠利益支持,利益是东南亚恐怖主义身份认同的基础,没有利益支持的身份认同是不稳固的,当身份无法继续提供凝聚力时,东南亚恐怖组织将会走向解体或分裂,其中分裂出的恐怖组织分支会为寻求支持而建构新的身份认同。虽然东南亚恐怖组织存在多元身份认同,但只有其中一种身份在构建恐怖主义时起着决定性的作用。在治理恐怖主义上各国需要采取针对性强的政策,同时需要预防其他身份构建恐怖主义的可能。